Posted by
Chip Monk on Tuesday, November 07, 2006 12:46:14 PM
Okay. Here it is. Enough posts about the run-up to the 2006 Election. Now I am making my own predictions about what will happen. I've studied this race like no election I've followed before. I've worked on GOTV efforts, and gotten a pulse on the people in my area. I've seen genuine anger on both sides, and heard people say they like "their" representative, even if they don't like Congress in general.
So... here are my prognostications. If I'm right, I'm brilliant (or at least lucky). If I'm way off... well, this was such a strange election cycle that there was no way to know... (Okay, that's a cop-out, but oh well...)
SENATE: I project that the Senate will reconvene in January with a total of 52 Republican Senators, 46 Democrats and 2 Independents (both working with the Democrat caucus). If anything, The Republicans will do better, not worse than this. As far as specifics, I see Steele pulling an upset in Maryland because of his flawless campaign and general attractiveness to voters. I believe that Corker will handily defeat the self-destructing "Junior" Ford. Talent will do fine against McCaskill, making people wonder if it was ever that close in the first place. Burns will beat Tester, and perhaps only because the bulk of Montana doesn't want the Dems in control of Congress. I project that DeWine will lose Ohio (thanks Taft) and that Allen will just barely survive Webb (and his own gaffs). Kyle will easily beat Pederson in Arizona, and I've been channelling that Santorum just may pull out a win in Pennsylvania, but if he does it will be by the smallest of margins (prompting mass allegations of fraud by the Dems). Lieberman will annihilate Lamont, but will try to stay chummy with his Democratic colleagues and will do little to thank his Republican proponents. So.. I see the Dems picking up Ohio, Rhode Island (although that will be close as well) and perhaps Pennsylvania, but Steele will win in Maryland by a squeeker.
HOUSE: This is the big unknown, but I project the Republicans to hang on by a bare three-vote margin. In January, they will have 219 votes against 216 for the Dems. However, Dennis Hassert will not be the Speaker (just a hunch). I project that Texas 22 will go Republican, as will Florida 16 because voters are a lot smarter than the MainStreamMedia gives them credit for. Wilson will win in New Mexico and Rainville will win in Vermont. One or both of the vulnerable Dem seats in Georgia will fall to the Republicans, and some seats that were thought lost will go overwhelmingly for the Republican candidate (against showing that the polls were never spot on).
FINAL ANALYSIS: The end result of this is to analyze how effective the MSM's and the Dem's "2006 Evangelical and Conservative Voter Suppression Efforts" were. The "Foleygate" and "Unknown Colorado Pastorgates" would barely have registered as stories if they represented liberals, and the Gay-this and Gay-that cloud has probably set back the Homosexual Agenda when all is said and done. If the Dems pull through and score a victory (even if only by one seat in the House and lose the Senate) they will surely up the ante in 2008 and we'll see far greater attacks on the sensabilities of Main Street American Values. Lastly, you almost have to wonder who John Kerry is pulling for. He seems to be the gift that keeps on giving, and his slight of the troops may end up being the big story when the Republicans survive this storm.